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conquestor

Conquestor's stock picks

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Everything picked up since January.

 

I've been doing a fair amount of trading in my IRA based on a couple of (loose) strategies which are paying off decently (3-4% a month, ish), if anyone's interested i'll post them.

 

Oh and I ended up making 30% on the JPMorgan trade.

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Sold this ea stock. I knew they were under valued but dear god did it take the market a long time to adjust.

 

Put in 18k, got 24402.40

 

Sitting on tesla's stock. Analysts saying to sell at $90+? Nah man

 

Analysts told me not to buy at $29 saying it was overvalued. Same when I doubled up at $38. Gimme dat $120 peak.

 

Other than that, I'm pretty sure deere's going to end up strong soon, but it's just going into a real valley now. Pretty sure others agree with me on this one, since they cut their sales numbers report, yet are still gaining. People just aren't sure of 90.06 (current) is as low as it will go. If it hits 87~ I'm going to buy that immediately.

 

Also contango oil & gas (MCF) might be a good pick also. Stock is currently under valued because the founder died, but honestly, it's good for the company that he did die. He was a terrible leader and made tonnes of shitty business decisions. Assuming his replacement is better, that company has the permits and the acquisitions to really take off and mine oil like a pool skimmer in an all black community pool.

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IMO, it might hit $120 just because of overhyping, but it is not at all worth it. Kind of like Netflix. Their actual numbers don't reflect their valuation. One of the major banks put out a report giving Tesla a $55 long-term target, based on it selling 40,000 cars at a 17% markup... Tesla is currently selling ~20,000 cars and nobody knows what the markup is but 17% is porsche-type markups. They posted a profit for the first time in 10 years and got a nice consumer reports review, and suddenly it practically doubles in a week. No way that's real.

 

I'm looking to short it, actually. I'm all for electric cars as a market segment, but Tesla as an individual company is just not that impressive in my opinion. They're expensive, they don't have enough charging stations, and their capacity is low.

 

My long financials picks in combination with guns have paid off pretty damn well. I also bought EWY (south korean ETF) around the time when Kim Jong Un was being all batshit crazy, because it fell a good 10%, and now its all recovered about 6 weeks later. I like those quick and easy 10% / month trades. Moody's crashed down to $45 ish in february on fears that the Feds were going to sue them (because the feds sued S+P over ratings fraud), so I bought then too ... back up to $65 and sold it earlier this week.

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IMO, it might hit $120 just because of overhyping, but it is not at all worth it. Kind of like Netflix. Their actual numbers don't reflect their valuation. One of the major banks put out a report giving Tesla a $55 long-term target, based on it selling 40,000 cars at a 17% markup... Tesla is currently selling ~20,000 cars and nobody knows what the markup is but 17% is porsche-type markups. They posted a profit for the first time in 10 years and got a nice consumer reports review, and suddenly it practically doubles in a week. No way that's real.

Well yeah, I don't expect it to actually BE valued at $120, but I think it'll hit it. And I also think tesla will be a viable car manufacturer in the long run.

 

 

I'm looking to short it, actually. I'm all for electric cars as a market segment, but Tesla as an individual company is just not that impressive in my opinion. They're expensive, they don't have enough charging stations, and their capacity is low.

 

True and false. They don't need charging stations because of the fact that it doesn't take that long to charge in the first place, their price is falling quickly ($20k model out in 2015), and yeah, their capacity is low, but it's not about that. They're the best on the market, so they'll gather the market share.

 

My long financials picks in combination with guns have paid off pretty damn well. I also bought EWY (south korean ETF) around the time when Kim Jong Un was being all batshit crazy, because it fell a good 10%, and now its all recovered about 6 weeks later. I like those quick and easy 10% / month trades. Moody's crashed down to $45 ish in february on fears that the Feds were going to sue them (because the feds sued S+P over ratings fraud), so I bought then too ... back up to $65 and sold it earlier this week.

 

See, I think gun investing is highly underrated. I've been SO tempted to just buy up a dozen or so pre-86 ban fully automatic guns, and re-sell them in a few decades. Or even get a bunch of ar15 completed lowers and hold onto them for a few years.

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I'm not talking about physical guns, I'm talking about gun stocks (RGR / SWHC). I don't think there's any reason to buy and hold assault rifles because they're not going to get banned or even have their clip capacity limited. They might have value as an inflation hedge, but who needs that these days? But talking about gun law changes in december caused both stocks to fall 30%. Major pension funds and other large public investors divested, keeping the stock price low until their volume was soaked up again, and now the stocks are doing fine once more. Add into that the conspiracy people / people who thought meaningful legislation would pass went out and bought guns, and the result is that RGR and SWHC have had a completely ridiculous couple of quarters. SWHC's revenues were up 125% since Q1 2012.

 

So not only did they recover, they're doing better.

 

My strategy is basically to mix political cynicism with an assumption that the market over-reacts to news which won't actually impact the business at hand. In the meantime I trade on minor action based on larger macro opinions, like for example financial sector recovery given an economy-wide recovery, or going short the yen and long the Nikkei because of Japanese central bank actions.

 

But give me a BP in mid-2010 situation and I'd dump a shitton of money in it...

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I'm not talking about physical guns, I'm talking about gun stocks (RGR / SWHC). I don't think there's any reason to buy and hold assault rifles because they're not going to get banned or even have their clip capacity limited. They might have value as an inflation hedge, but who needs that these days?

 

Exactly. If you haven't followed the price of guns, let me give you an example. During the whole "OBAMA'S GON' GIT UR GUNS" phase, the prices of ar15's went from $600 to $1200~ in about a year. Now that people are realizing that obama isn't a gun grabbing muslim communist socialist fascist marxist prices are at $700~ But the thing is, people who stocked up on guns while they were at 1k~ (And trust me, people did) are now willing to sell at a massive loss just to offload them. For example, I can buy a stripped ar15 lower for $70, a parts kit for $80, and an upper for $200. 20 minutes of assembly and I can make a pretty good profit.

 

And fully automatic guns are an amazing investment. Because they're not going to be unbanned anytime soon. Basically, if a gun was made before 1986 and was fully automatic at the time of the 86 gun ban, you can legally own it just like a normal gun. So they're worth a LOT of money. Especially for ones in good conditions.

 

 

But talking about gun law changes in december caused both stocks to fall 30%. Major pension funds and other large public investors divested, keeping the stock price low until their volume was soaked up again, and now the stocks are doing fine once more. Add into that the conspiracy people / people who thought meaningful legislation would pass went out and bought guns, and the result is that RGR and SWHC have had a completely ridiculous couple of quarters. SWHC's revenues were up 125% since Q1 2012.

 

So not only did they recover, they're doing better.

 

Yep. http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/is-obama-still-the-best-gun-salesman-ever.html/?a=viewall

 

 

My strategy is basically to mix political cynicism with an assumption that the market over-reacts to news which won't actually impact the business at hand. In the meantime I trade on minor action based on larger macro opinions, like for example financial sector recovery given an economy-wide recovery, or going short the yen and long the Nikkei because of Japanese central bank actions.

 

But give me a BP in mid-2010 situation and I'd dump a shitton of money in it... 

 

I do the same actually, and it works out well. Basically, always invest in the "bad guy" who takes PR hits, or who performs badly, but the market still believes in.

 

 

 

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I like it, its pretty low-risk I think. Especially with megacompanies. I also did Moody's after the feds sued S+P for ratings fraud; went from ~$44 to $65. Next time I come across one I like I'll put it up here. There hasn't been a good one since Kim Jong Un was saber-rattling 6 weeks ago, and that one was one of the riskiest ones I've done - because who really knows what that jackass is thinking. I especially like the political strategy on mega companies because their core business is almost always fine, but they get temporarily undervalued as the market reacts irrationally to news, rumor, or tragedy.

 

Oh I still own some SWHC because their Q2 earnings report is due out in June. It went down to December levels a couple weeks ago (making no sense to me at all) so I bought some around $8.70. Currently at $9.20ish, I'd expect it to pop up over the $10.00 mark close to / soon after earnings at which point I'll sell. Both RGR and SWHC popped after their earnings reports for Q1 and then declined gradually thereafter.

 

I still wouldn't buy guns as an investment only because I don't know much about storage or know how to offload them in the future in a legal way (or want to have 20 AR-15's sitting around my house). I could see the rationale for buying fully-automatic weapons, but your argument assumes that demand will either stay the same or increase. That's not guaranteed, but it does seem well within the realm of reason.

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I still wouldn't buy guns as an investment only because I don't know much about storage or know how to offload them in the future in a legal way (or want to have 20 AR-15's sitting around my house). I could see the rationale for buying fully-automatic weapons, but your argument assumes that demand will either stay the same or increase. That's not guaranteed, but it does seem well within the realm of reason.

 

I thought guns would be hard to sell too, but it's actually REALLY, really easy. All you need to do is list them on gunslist.com, and sell them person to person. You don't need to give background checks or anything, either. And yeah, you don't need 20 fully completed ar15's :P you just buy the part that's regulated (The lower receiver is the part that has the gun's serial, and is considered the "firearm". The other part (Upper receiver) isn't regulated at all. You can get them sent to your door.

 

Demand will always rise for pre ban legal machine guns, simply because there are no one ones entering the market (Literally, 0 per year), and some are lost every year. Decreasing supply. Seriously, machine guns are literally the highest % ROI value of any investment you can make. The downside is there ARE lots of legal considerations you need to take when dealing with Class 3 NFA weapons.

 

Also, if one day the supreme court repeals the houghes amendment, your 15 $28,000 m16's are now only worth $800.

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I thought guns would be hard to sell too, but it's actually REALLY, really easy. All you need to do is list them on gunslist.com, and sell them person to person. You don't need to give background checks or anything, either. 

 

Aside from a small chance of being shot over a dispute, sounds worth it.

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I sold out of most of my big positions today, I don't like how everything keeps slowly going up with low volatility and low volumes - it makes me think big players are sitting short, or are waiting for a fall before they buy. I expect the "sell in may and go away" thing to happen, and when it does, I want to be liquid enough to take advantage of it. I'm looking for a 100-200 point down day before I buy something again.

 

I kept my DXJ going (albeit at a tight trailing stop-loss of 2%) because the fundamentals behind that trade haven't changed at all. I also retain my SWHC because the intent is to hold onto it until earnings in June. I did put a tight stop loss on SWHC too.

 

Unrelated note: the short squeeze being employed on herbalife is goddamn hilarious. I was trying to play it long a couple months ago and missed my window by a couple months apparently (although I did hit one big upswing). From $38 to $50 in 2 days ... Ackman can't be too pleased.

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I just dumped some more cash into my options house account, looking for things to buy. I'm pretty lazy though for research

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i sold 200 out of 500 of TSLA at $92 to buy $18k of SCTY which is now up 20%.  But TSLA is up to $97!  Basically, I'm long Elon Musk in a big way.  Super happy I got into TSLA at $15.55.

 

TSLA has sold more Model S than BMW and Mercedes, Audi, and LExus in their segment:

  • Tesla: 4750+
  • Audi A8:1,462
  • BMW 7-Series: 2,338
  • Lexus LS: 2,860
  • Mercedes-Benz S Class: 3,077
  • Caddilac XTS: 7,130

 

There isn't anything else in the market that doesn't scare the bejesus out of me though.  I would like to own some GOOG and NFLX to go with my APPL and FB but I don't like buying at their current prices, same for LNKD.  I really wish I had some time to do some analysis, it feels like I'm late to every trade and I don't know what to do when it's not a bear market...lol

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NFLX will probably get a bump after arrested development airs, but it already bumped like 20% on negligible upgrades, so I don't know about it really. APPL is purely opinion - do you think they'll create more products - and facebook is the same. I dont know anything about linkedin.

 

Side note I did manage to sell at the right time, my DXJ dropped 10% starting wednesday. I still like it though. Let's get a 100-200 point drop and get everybody running around with their hair on fire so I can buy me some stocks. I literally have no positions in my IRA right now, its all cash.

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Was waiting for you to post, I've been tracking it.

 

I made good money 6 weeks ago buying BAC $13 call options. Bernanke scared everyone, they dropped by half, i picked em up.

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I've been really busy, so pretty much forgot about this forum for the most part. I'm working 2 jobs now.


CTO for a startup, that's fast approaching mid-cap, and Chief of deployment and security specialist for a large-cap company. I want to become an independent day trader though, and should hopefully have enough to retire to doing that in another 10 years.

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yzUCPvR.png

 

EA was nice enough to get me a house.

 

I'm about to make a very large investment I'm not so sure of, but once google gets to 572, I'm going to buy a LOT of it.

 

Honestly I'm betting their value is going to increase still, though. Mostly because the new console generation has just gotten started and they're maintaining profitability.

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i sold 200 out of 500 of TSLA at $92 to buy $18k of SCTY which is now up 20%.  But TSLA is up to $97!  Basically, I'm long Elon Musk in a big way.  Super happy I got into TSLA at $15.55.

 

Look, a year ago already.  I sold 1/3rd of the SCTY (holdings still worth $14k...) but kept all the TSLA.  Seems like the right play. Finally picked up some SPY and GLD, but pretty speculative otherwise.  CIM, PCRFY, CYS....  what can I say I'm a sucker for dividends and batteries...

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