Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
disco

2012 Election

Recommended Posts

Job numbers ticked down to lowest point in 4 years. Fox calls shenanigans on the numbers. But when the numbers go up, Fox points out that the numbers are indicative of failed presidential policies. Interesting how they're only valid when they go in one way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, that gets me, too. Everyone here knows that I'm all about the media bias, but sometimes I think right-wingers see something that fails to help (or hurts) their guy and all of a sudden MEDIA BIAS, when that's not it at all.

 

If we continue to see a downward trend in the unemployment rate- and it's likely we will as we head into the holidays and retail outlets hire to deal with the normal increased demand- then it could be good for the POTUS. I think Republicans need to be careful about being sour on an improving economy, though. There are ways to make the point that the economy still sucks, but without the repercussions of it looking like they WANT the economy to suck. An interesting video about the new jobs numbers.

 

In other news, there was a bounce, at least nationally. I've seen scattered reports of swing states moving in Romney's direction, too, but nothing for certain. As it says in the article, time will tell if the bounce is temporary or permanent. It appears to me that Romney simply won a greater share of the undecideds/independents and that the percentages that both had are still there; it's possible Obama lost a percent or so of undecideds, but that's within the margin of error.

 

Finally, the next two POTUS debates are a town hall and then a debate on foreign policy. I'm interested to see Romney in the town hall. He'll need to bring his A game, as I think Obama is likely going come much more prepared. The foreign policy debate will be quite interesting, as the whole Libya cover up will be making much more news by then, in addition to the Syria/Turkey problems and possibly even the China/Japan situation. It'll make for a great, substantive debate, hopefully.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The townhall is a good point. It will be interesting to see which is better in a crowd, as opposed to in a dark theater.

 

Jobs numbers, yep. Well, they'll want them to go down until Romney gets in office, amirite? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I forgot about that ... was writing a paper pretty much without break from 4pm-2am yesterday. Will check it out, although based on previous Stewart-O'Reilly interactions which result in O'Reilly just loudly repeating bullshit while looking like he knows he's playing a stupid game, I wasn't expecting much. Typical interaction:

 

Stewart: Bill, you don't really follow this right-wing hyped up bullshit, do you?

O'Reilly: But yes! *repeats bullshit claim*

Stewart: But seriously, you're arguing that free contraception makes all women using it prostitutes?

O'Reilly: COME ON STEWART. COME ON. *repeats claim*

Stewart: U srs?

O'Reilly: *adopts shit-eating grin* COME ON STEWART. Look. *repeats claim, insults daily show audience*

Stewart: And here's his book.

 

End of interview

 

More GOP nutters

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, it doesn't, which is kind of my point. O'Reilly - Stewart hasn't garnered any interesting insights in years, not since like 2003-2004 when O'Reilly was the face of fox news conservative controversy. Then Hannity and Beck showed up, Coulter and Malkin became commentators, and O'Reilly got out-crazied and became relatively centrist in the Fox News commentary world (along with Shep Smith and Brett Hume). Thats why I want to see if the rumble is actually worth anything.

 

Time for a break from yet another paper, might as well watch it.

 

Latest poll has Obama leading in swing states with Romney having +2 nationwide. Ofc, that's within margin of error. But still, definitely a bump. Let's see if it proves enduring.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't see the bump sticking around, at least not for this debate. Obama has got a very good TV campaign going- heck, I saw one of his commercials and even I almost wanted to vote for him.

 

However, if Ryan beats the hell out of Biden (Which all but the most ridiculous are thinking will happen. I mean, come on, freakin' PALIN did well against him.) and Romney doesn't completely bomb the town hall, it could completely change the race. Heck, the folks at MSNBC think the race is already over. And they could be right. Except for killing UBL, Obama has nothing to run on with foreign policy and the ME is going to hell right now. Whether or not it's his fault doesn't matter, but it happened on his watch, so the conventional wisdom is that it falls at his feet.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What people (and I don't mean folks here, EXCEPT FOR MoP) seem to not understand is that the people that will be swayed by watching the debates will never hear which candidate lied about what. If they are so uninformed that 1. they don't know who they are voting for yet, and 2. they don't know the issues well enough to discern a lie/misstatement when they hear it, they are very likely not going to hear the punditry associated with the debate. The debates are the only shot some will have to hear what each candidate says. That is why Romney's performance was incredibly devastating to Obama last night. For that small percentage of voters that are so uninformed that they made their decision on what they saw last night only, Romney looking commanding, cool, in charge and the President with his body language problem and lack of assertion is what will change their minds, not the facts, the lies, the substance, the zingers, or the moderator's skill at moderating.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There is a certain amount of truth to the charges that Romney changed his positions during the debate. His $5 trillion tax cut was no longer a "tax cut," for example.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hey Raith, I already knew you are voting for Romney, no need to reassert it.

 

As for those of us were are still up in the air, Romney seemed to say absolutely nothing useful in this debate. Obama seemed to have at least used one or two facts (I too lost interest after a while). Therefore in my book, that of a rational human being who listens to what is being said, Obama won the debate in making me want to vote for him more, by simply having one or two facts! Which is a pretty sad that Romney could not achieve this himself.

 

If someone could actually tell me with reasonable belief that Romney would try to balance the budget then maybe I'd change my mind, he won't do anything better than Obama, he'll cut taxes and raise military spending. This is why the republican party is a joke since they cannot stick to the simple idea of fiscal conservatism in anything but campaigns.

 

At least Obama is working towards good things, preventing people from ending up without health insurance and running on a platform that promotes gay marriage.

 

Anyways I get it, @Catwalker, and @Raith, everyone is a politician. Obama would fiip flop if his advisors said he'd need to win the campaign just like any other politician. You cannot invoke change if you never get into office. However, I still see no reason you'd choose Romney over Obama at this point. What is he offering you over Obama that you accept the social conservativsm?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
DENVER—Following last night’s nationally televised presidential debate, President Barack Obama’s 11-year-old daughter Sasha reportedly asked her father why he was “acting like such a goddamned pussy up there.” “Daddy, how come you were being such a little bitch?” asked the sixth-grader, who told the president she was “genuinely worried” that maybe somebody had “cut Daddy’s balls off” right before he took the stage. “What happened, Dad? Were you on your period or something? Maybe the next time you’re in front of the entire country for an hour and a half you should try not letting another man spank you on the ass like that.” Sources added that Obama’s youngest daughter then offered to help the president go “look for [his] dick, because apparently it’s gone missing.”

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And on the other side of The Onion...

 

DENVER—Following Wednesday's presidential debate, Mitt Romney’s performance was hailed as “dominant” and “potentially game-changing” by a near unanimous consensus of political commentators who were still trying to figure out where exactly the Republican nominee stood on the issues and what specific policies, if any, he espoused. “Mitt Romney was very strong up there, and there’s no doubt he made an effective, compelling case to the nation’s undecided voters,” said NBC News correspondent Chuck Todd, who was, if anything, more at a loss as to what health care, job creation, tax policy, education, deficit reduction, and financial regulation would look like under a Romney presidency after the debate than he was before it began. “Romney came across as very presidential tonight. If he can ride this momentum for the rest of the campaign, he has a real shot at taking the White House.” Analyzing President Obama’s performance, pundits agreed that the man who articulated a sober plan of measured steps and shared sacrifice to ensure the nation’s future prosperity had a “tough road” ahead of him if he hoped to match Romney in the next debate.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What is he offering you over Obama that you accept the social conservativsm?

 

MoP, this is a great question and I want to address it. But I don't have much time this week to give you a real, thoughtful reply. Next week will be better for me. Sorry.

 

I'll leave you with this until I can answer it: If Santorum had won the GOP primaries and was now the official candidate, I would have voted third party this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The echo chamber has been quite effective at perpetrating the myth that Obama represents a revolutionary, new, and likely-cataclysmic redefinition of the relationship between the individual and the state. Most people I know who are zealously anti-Obama (my mother hates him so much she told me this week that she's not watching any of the debates because just watching Obama talk makes her angry) buy into that. When you actually question them on how, they tend to deal in acontextual statistics.

 

I watched the stewart-oreilly, it was better than expected, although OReilly did devolve into his typical strategy when cornered on some bullshit, which is to repeat what he said at first, louder, and then repeat it again with a tone of "Oh you stupid child you don't understand this simple idea!"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

disco, are you trying to make the point that there's no rational reason to not vote for Obama?

 

Anyway, this is a great article about the Obama campaign's strategy to win the election. It's actually quite a genius plan and he would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for that pesky debate.

 

Obama is, and always has been, something of a bandwagon candidate. A major theme in 2008 was always that supporting Obama enabled the voter to be a part of history, encouraging others to join in the process. But for that theme to work, the perception had to be that Obama was, in fact, going to win.

 

So every time there was a real or potential setback, Team Obama was ready to change the subject. I don't mean this as an insult. Rather, I simply mean it as descriptive of some smart moves by the Obama campaign during the last campaign and, I think, this campaign.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There are many valid reasons not to vote for Obama. Maybe you're a died in the wool neoliberal who thinks that free markets solve all wrongs, maybe you're a libertarian and so Obama is further from the libertarian ideal than Romney is. Maybe you're unhappy with the progress made on the economy. Maybe you're entirely concerned with the deficit and think Romney's plan will solve it better (leaving aside debates on Romney's plan). Maybe you care strongly about immigration reform - or rather, the lack thereof - and want Romney's position. Maybe you're solely a social issues voter, and you are entirely concerned with the ending of abortion.

 

Those are legitimate reasons, and there are many others. What is not, however, a legitimate reason to vote against Obama is buying into the idea that he is somehow forcing socialism down our throats, actively undermining religion at every possible turn, or that he is trying to create a nation of parasitic dependents who vote for him only because (a) he's charismatic or (B) they want their welfare checks.

 

My opposition to Romney is also quite reasoned, at least I like to think so. I disagree with his economic philosophy - which is touted as his greatest strength. I think he's entirely wrong on social issues. I think his political philosophy is, at best, a throwback to 2000-2008 policies and at worst is an adaption of a mythology created by the over-simplified (and largely debunked) economic theories of Milton Friedman, Hayek, and the absurd "philosophy" of Rand.

 

In other words, my opposition of Romney is notable for what it isn't. I don't think he'll destroy the country - in fact, I think people often overestimate how much influence a President actually has. I don't think he paid no taxes, and wouldn't particularly care if he had: If he'd never paid a dime of income tax, all that would show is the stupidity of the tax system, not some personal trait of his beyond what everyone else would do in the same situation. I disagree with his proposed policies and his stated philosophy. I do not engage in hyperbolic rants about the pending destruction of America and try to paint him as something I'd rather him be. I disagree with him as he is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×